Risk Determination

PREDICT has compiled the most comprehensive data on the risk of zoonotic disease emergence throughout the world.

Our risk-determination efforts are aimed at identifying hotspots for emerging diseases of pandemic potential to guide surveillance and help countries develop disease control and prevention strategies. Our risk maps show that the drivers of disease emergence vary by region, but common drivers are population growth, land-use change, agricultural intensification and related factors like bushmeat hunting and consumption.

Using data from our global surveillance efforts, PREDICT has produced the first scientifically based estimate of the total number of unknown viruses in wildlife (mammals). This pool of about 320,000 viruses is lower than many had previously suggested, and it is the pool from which the next pandemic would emerge.  

The four main programmatic areas of PREDICT are functionally integrated:

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